Research

We study how pathogens and people interact, from the molecular to the global scales. Our ongoing efforts include:

Figure illustrating making viral kinetics a pillar of surveillance
01

Making viral kinetics a pillar of surveillance

Epidemics are shaped by microbiology, physiology, and behavior. Viral kinetics are the critical link that translates across these scales: the time-course of viral levels in the body during an infection reflects the struggle between the virus and the immune system while also forming the basis for transmission. Viral kinetics have revolutionized our understanding of pathogens like HIV and SARS-CoV-2, but unlike pathogen genomics (the micro-scale) and morbidity and mortality statistics (the population scale), we rarely do active surveillance on viral kinetics (the intermediate scale). We're setting out to change that: we are developing the tools to empower viral kinetics surveillance, the statistical methods to streamline data collection, and the science to interpret what we find.

Figure illustrating using diagnostic testing to advance public health
02

Using diagnostic testing to advance public health

Diagnostic tests are normally used as clinical tools to decide the best treatment course for a patient. But diagnostic testing can play an equally powerful role in curbing outbreaks. Often, the optimal criteria for testing platforms — their sensitivity, specificity, cost, and production volume — differ depending on whether they are used for clinical or public health purposes. But our regulatory frameworks prioritize clinical uses, so potentially life-saving public health diagnostics remain poorly optimized or never make it to market. We're working to make public health testing co-equal with its clinical counterpart, using modeling and simulations to lay out public health use-cases for novel diagnostics.

Figure illustrating empowering local, decentralized outbreak response
03

Empowering local, decentralized outbreak response

Top-down decisions are often necessary for controlling outbreaks, but they risk overlooking community-specific values and risk factors, and can be too coarse and cumbersome to respond to a fast-moving outbreak. New digital technologies can empower individuals and local communities with information that was previously only accessible to well-resourced, centralized agencies, allowing for more agile and granular public health decisions. We are developing privacy-preserving, mechanistically-grounded outbreak-support tools to help local communities test targeted interventions before deploying them and to access advanced scenario-planning capabilities, powering evidence-based, community-aware interventions.

Figure illustrating finding the upstream drivers of antibiotic resistance
04

Finding the upstream drivers of antibiotic resistance

Antibiotic resistance is one of this century's foremost public health challenges. The onus to prevent it is often placed on healthcare providers, who are instructed to prescribe antibiotics only when absolutely necessary. But antibiotic use is driven more fundamentally by disease, which in turn is shaped by vaccination, underlying health conditions, and social determinants. We are working to identify these upstream drivers of antibiotic prescribing so that we can respond more comprehensively to the antibiotic resistance crisis.

Figure illustrating disentangling respiratory virus ecology
05

Disentangling respiratory virus ecology

Respiratory viruses cause huge numbers of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths. Their ecology dictates how we respond, including decisions like when, whom, and against which strains we should vaccinate, and how we should prepare our schools, hospitals, and workplaces for surges. The COVID-19 pandemic offers a unique opportunity to study these viruses' ecology: by interpreting the temporal and geographic patterns of their spread as they return to normal circulation after being suppressed by masking and distancing, we can disentangle the impact of cross-immunity, waning protection, and mobility in ways that were previously impossible.

Figure illustrating assessing how outbreaks impact agricultural worker health and food production
06

Assessing how outbreaks impact agricultural worker health and food production

Outbreaks play out differently across sectors of society. Agriculture is especially vulnerable to epidemics: agricultural workers are often highly mobile, face unique occupational exposures (pesticides, household crowding, exposure to disease-carrying vectors), and have limited access to health care. Epidemics also pose a fundamentally different type of threat to agricultural systems than better-studied shocks like droughts and storms: the response to an outbreak can exacerbate its spread, and an epidemic spreading across the globe can cause immediate, local impacts, as measures are put in place to prevent the spread of disease. We are working to understand how epidemics uniquely impact agricultural workers and food production, so that we can better anticipate and prevent their worst impacts.

Selected publications

A curated selection below — the complete, up-to-date list lives on Google Scholar. Filter by topic:

2026
Inferring infectiousness: a joint model of the within-host viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2

Christopher B. Boyer, Stephen M. Kissler, Seran Hakki, Jakob Jonnerby, Ajit Lalvani, Marc Lipsitch · arXiv (2026)

Preprint
2026
Understanding and exploiting superspreading to disrupt Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission

Tyler S. Brown, Kristin Nelson, Stephen Kissler, Leo Martinez, C Robert Horsburgh, Laura F White, Barun Mathema, Karen R Jacobson · The Lancet Infectious Diseases (2026)

2026
Visualizing epidemiological models for policy: design principles for effective communication

Liza Hadley, Nick Holliman, Kai Xu, …, Stephen M. Kissler · Frontiers in Public Health (2026)

2026
Integrating viral kinetics into routine outbreak surveillance: challenges, opportunities and lessons from COVID-19

James A. Hay, Daniel B. Larremore, Aishani V. Aatresh, Stephen M. Kissler · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2026)

2026
Modeling the impact of respiratory disease outbreaks on the United States agricultural workforce

Katherine Bardsley, Luis X. de Pablo, Emma Keppler Canada, Naia Ormaza Zulueta, Zia Mehrabi, Stephen M. Kissler · medRxiv (2026)

Preprint
2026
How bursty infectiousness shapes epidemic dynamics

Stephen M. Kissler · medRxiv (2026)

Preprint
2026
Making inferences with incomplete epidemiological data: a proof-of-concept estimating measles vaccine coverage across Canada

Liza Hadley, Rachael Milwid, Valerie Hongoh, Rania Wasfi, Stephen M. Kissler, Irena Papst · medRxiv (2026)

Preprint
2025
Diagnostic testing as a public health intervention: challenges and opportunities

Kristin Nelson, Tyler S. Brown, Stephen M. Kissler · Future Virology (2025)

2024
Drivers of geographic patterns in outpatient antibiotic prescribing in the United States

Stephen M. Kissler, Kirstin I. Oliveira Roster, Rachel Petherbridge, Ateev Mehrotra, Michael L. Barnett, Yonatan H. Grad · Clinical Infectious Diseases (2024)

2024
Infectious disease surveillance needs for the United States: Lessons from COVID-19

Marc Lipsitch, …, Stephen M. Kissler, …, Yonatan H. Grad · Frontiers in Public Health (2024)

2024
The impact of vaccines and behavior on US cumulative deaths from COVID-19

Andrew Atkeson, Stephen M. Kissler · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2024)

2024
Surveillance strategies for the detection of new pathogen variants across epidemiological contexts

Kirstin I. Oliveira Roster, Stephen M. Kissler, …, Yonatan H. Grad · PLOS Computational Biology (2024)

2023
Viral kinetics of sequential SARS-CoV-2 infections

Stephen M. Kissler, James A. Hay, Joseph R. Fauver, Christina Mack, …, Yonatan H. Grad · Nature Communications (2023)

2023
Impact of respiratory infection and chronic comorbidities on early pediatric antibiotic dispensing in the United States

Stephen M Kissler, Bill Wang, Ateev Mehrotra, Michael Barnett, Yonatan H Grad · Clinical Infectious Diseases (2023)

2022
Quantifying the impact of immune history and variant on SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and infection rebound: A retrospective cohort study

James A Hay, Stephen M Kissler, Joseph R Fauver, Christina Mack, …, Nathan D Grubaugh, Yonatan H Grad · eLife (2022)

2022
Anticipating racial/ethnic mortality displacement from COVID-19

Stephen M Kissler, Yonatan H Grad · American Journal of Epidemiology (2022)

2022
Characterizing SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance kinetics to improve the design of antiviral pharmacometric studies

James A Watson, Stephen M Kissler, Nicholas PJ Day, Yonatan H Grad, Nicholas J White · Antimicrobial agents and chemotherapy (2022)

2021
Viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants in vaccinated and unvaccinated persons

Stephen M Kissler, Joseph R Fauver, Christina Mack, …, Nathan D Grubaugh, Yonatan H Grad · New England Journal of Medicine (2021)

2021
Reduction in antibiotic prescribing attainable with a gonococcal vaccine

Stephen M Kissler, Moriah Mitchell, Yonatan H Grad · Clinical Infectious Diseases (2021)

2021
Waning immunity and the second wave: Some projections for SARS-CoV-2

Chryssi Giannitsarou, Stephen Kissler, Flavio Toxvaerd · American Economic Review: Insights (2021)

2021
Viral dynamics of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and applications to diagnostic and public health strategies

Stephen M. Kissler, Joseph R. Fauver, Christina Mack, et al. · PLOS Biology (2021)

2021
Childhood respiratory outpatient visits correlate with socioeconomic status and drive geographic patterns in antibiotic prescribing

Stephen M Kissler, R Monina Klevens, Michael L Barnett, Yonatan H Grad · The Journal of Infectious Diseases (2021)

2021
Distinguishing the roles of antibiotic stewardship and reductions in outpatient visits in generating a 5-year decline in antibiotic prescribing

Stephen M Kissler, R Monina Klevens, Michael L Barnett, Yonatan H Grad · Clinical Infectious Diseases (2021)

2021
Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus

Kate M. Bubar, Kyle Reinholt, Stephen M. Kissler, Marc Lipsitch, Sarah Cobey, Yonatan H. Grad, Daniel B. Larremore · Science (2021)

2020
Reductions in commuting mobility correlate with geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in New York City

Stephen M Kissler, Nishant Kishore, …, Caroline O Buckee, Yonatan H Grad · Nature communications (2020)

2020
Ending the HIV epidemic in the USA

Brooke E Nichols, Stephen M Kissler · The Lancet HIV (2020)

2020
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period

Stephen M. Kissler, Christine Tedijanto, Edward Goldstein, Yonatan H. Grad, Marc Lipsitch · Science (2020)

2020
Symbolic transfer entropy reveals the age structure of pandemic influenza transmission from high-volume influenza-like illness data

Stephen M Kissler, Cécile Viboud, Bryan T Grenfell, Julia R Gog · Journal of The Royal Society Interface (2020)

2020
Contacts in context: large-scale setting-specific social mixing matrices from the BBC Pandemic project

Petra Klepac, Adam J Kucharski, Andrew JK Conlan, Stephen Kissler, Maria L Tang, Hannah Fry, Julia R Gog · MedRxiv (2020)

Preprint
2020
Sparking “The BBC Four Pandemic”: Leveraging citizen science and mobile phones to model the spread of disease

Stephen M Kissler, Petra Klepac, Maria Tang, Andrew JK Conlan, Julia R Gog · bioRxiv (2020)

Preprint
2019
Geographic transmission hubs of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the United States

Stephen M Kissler, Julia R Gog, Cécile Viboud, Vivek Charu, Ottar N Bjørnstad, Lone Simonsen, Bryan T Grenfell · Epidemics (2019)

2018
Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities

Benjamin D. Dalziel, Stephen Kissler, Julia R. Gog, Cécile Viboud, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell · Science (2018)

2018
Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic–The model behind the documentary

Petra Klepac, Stephen Kissler, Julia Gog · Epidemics (2018)

No publications match that filter yet.